联系我们
Isaac Scientific Publishing
Journal of Advances in Economics and Finance
JAEF > Volume 4, Number 2, May 2019

The Business Cycle and Economic Crisis—When Will China Experience Them?

Download PDF  (2365.6 KB)PP. 60-78,  Pub. Date:May 6, 2019
DOI: 10.22606/jaef.2019.42003

Author(s)
Yueyun (Bill) Chen
Affiliation(s)
University of the West, Los Angeles
Abstract
This paper gives a brief historical review of the business cycle and economic crisis-its theories and experiences. It focuses on whether China may soon experience the business cycle and economic crisis. Based on comprehensive analyses, it concludes that China may start experiencing the business cycle from the year around 2025-2027 and then experience the economic recession and even economic crisis thereafter. It further discusses what China can learn from other countries’ similar experiences and what it should do to lessen potential negative effects.
Keywords
Business cycle, economic recession, economic crisis, China’s economy
References
  • [1]  Artis, Michael J., Zenon G. Kontolemis, and Denise R. Osborn (1997), “Business Cycles of G7 and European Countries,” Journal of Business 70, pp. 249&279;
  • [2]  Backus, David K., and Patrick J. Kehoe. (1992), “International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles,” American Economic Review 82, pp. 864-900;
  • [3]  Bordo, Michael D., Haubrich, Joseph G (2017), “Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, and Financial Crises: Evidence from the American Record”, Economic Inquiry, Vol. 55 Issue 1, p527-541;
  • [4]  Canova, Fabio, and Harris Dellas (1993), “Trade Interdependence and the International Business Cycle,” Journal of International Economics, pp. 23-47;
  • [5]  Chen, Yueyun(Bill), et al. (2017), “The Productivity, Economic Structure and Middle-Income Trap—Can China Avoid this Trap?” Journal of Applied Business and Economics, Volume 19(11);
  • [6]  Chen, Yueyun(Bill) (2017), “Purple Ocean Strategy and the Development of Urban Agglomerations”, Academic Perspective, Volume 13;
  • [7]  Chen, Yueyun(Bill) (2016), International Comparisons of the Service Industry-What China can Learn from the Other Countries?” Journal of Advances in Economics and Finance;
  • [8]  Chen, Yueyun(Bill)(2016), “International Comparison of Agriculture Industry—What China can Learn from Others?” Int’l Journal of Agricultural Economics, July;
  • [9]  Chen, Yueyun(Bill)(2015), “China’s Path to the Sustainable, Stable and Rapid Economic Development: From the Largest to the Strongest Manufacturing Country,” Journal of World Economic Research, August;
  • [10]  Diebold, Francis X., and Glenn D. Rudebusch (1996), “Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective,” The Review of Economics and Statistics (February), pp. 67-77;
  • [11]  Diebold, Francis X., and Glenn D. Rudebusch (1999), “Business Cycles: Durations, Dynamics, and Forecasting,” Princeton: Princeton University Press;
  • [12]  Diebold, Francis X, Rudebusch, Glenn D. (2001), “Five Questions about Business Cycles,” Economic Review, pp1- 15;
  • [13]  Fort, Teresa C, Haltiwanger, John, Jarmin, Ron S, Miranda, Javier (2013), “How Firms Respond to Business Cycles: The Role of Firm Age and Firm Size”, IMF Economic Review, Vol. 61 Issue 3, p520-559;
  • [14]  Francis, Neville, Owyang, Michael and Soques, Daniel (2015), “Does the United States Lead Foreign Business Cycles?” Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009;
  • [15]  Gregory, Alan W., Allen C. Head, and Jacques Raynauld (1997), “Measuring World Business Cycles,” International Economic Review, pp. 677-701;
  • [16]  Hansen, Gary D., and Edward C. Prescott (1993), “Did Technology Shocks Cause the 1990&1991 Recession?” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 83(2) pp. 280-286;
  • [17]  Henzel, Steffen R., Rengel, Malte, (2017), “Dimensions of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: A Common Factor Analysis,” Economic Inquiry, Vol. 55 Issue 2, p843-877;
  • [18]  Kose, M. Ayhan, Otrok, Christopher, Whiteman, Charles (2003), “International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors,” American Economic Review, Vol. 93 Issue 4, p1216-1239;
  • [19]  Keith, Wade (2018), “Where might the next global financial crisis come from?” Professional Adviser;
  • [20]  Kouparitsas, Michael A., (2002), “Understanding U.S. Regional Cyclical Comovement: How Important are Spillovers and Common Shocks?” Economic Perspectives, Vol. 26, Issue 4, p30;
  • [21]  Kouparitsas, Michael A (1998), “Are International Business Cycles Different under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes?” Economic Perspectives, Vol. 22 Issue 1, p46-64.
  • [22]  Lopes, António M., Tenreiro Machado, J. A. , Huffstot, John S., Mata, Maria Eugénia (2018), “Dynamical Analysis of the Global Business-cycle Synchronization”, PLoS ONE, Vol. 13 Issue 2, p1-25;
  • [23]  Perron, Pierre (1989), “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis.” Econometrica, pp. 1,361-1,401;
  • [24]  Potts, Jason and Tom Mandeville (2007), “Toward an Evolutionary Theory of Innovation and Growth in the Service Economy,” Prometheus, pp.147-159;
  • [25]  Ray, Dalio (2018), “Big Debt Crises”, Bridgewater;
  • [26]  Sargent, Thomas J. (1976), "A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, vol. 84, pp. 207-37;
  • [27]  Stiglitz, Joseph E. & Linda J. Bilmes (2012), “Agricultural Revolution Led to the Great Depression in 1930s” The Book of Jobs;
  • [28]  Watson, Mark W. (1994), “Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy.” American Economic Review, pp. 24-46.
Copyright © 2019 Isaac Scientific Publishing Co. All rights reserved.